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= Exposure to climate change impacts =
= Exposure to climate change impacts =


As part of a study on the exposure of African great ape sites to climate change impacts, Kiribou et al. subm. extracted climate data and data on projected extreme climate impact events for the site. Climatological characteristics were derived from observation-based climate data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org). Parameters were calculated as the average across each 30-year period. For 1981-2010, the EWEMBI dataset from ISIMIP2a was used. For the two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099) ISIMIP2b climate data based on four CMIP5 global climate models were used. For future projections, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were used. RCP 2.6 is a scenario with strong mitigation measures in which global temperatures would likely rise below 2C. RCP 6.0 is a scenario with medium emissions in which global temperatures would likely rise up to 3C by 2100. For the number of days with heavy precipitation events, the 98th percentile of all precipitation days (>1mm/d) was calculated for the 1979-2013 reference period as a threshold for a heavy precipitation event. Then, for each year, the number of days above that threshold was derived. The figures on temperature and precipitation anomaly show the deviation from the mean temperature and mean precipitation for the 1979-2013 reference period.
As part of a study on the exposure of African great ape sites to climate change impacts, Kiribou et al. (2024) extracted climate data and data on projected extreme climate impact events for the site. Climatological characteristics were derived from observation-based climate data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org). Parameters were calculated as the average across each 30-year period. For 1981-2010, the EWEMBI dataset from ISIMIP2a was used. For the two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099) ISIMIP2b climate data based on four CMIP5 global climate models were used. For future projections, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were used. RCP 2.6 is a scenario with strong mitigation measures in which global temperatures would likely rise below 2C. RCP 6.0 is a scenario with medium emissions in which global temperatures would likely rise up to 3C by 2100. For the number of days with heavy precipitation events, the 98th percentile of all precipitation days (>1mm/d) was calculated for the 1979-2013 reference period as a threshold for a heavy precipitation event. Then, for each year, the number of days above that threshold was derived. The figures on temperature and precipitation anomaly show the deviation from the mean temperature and mean precipitation for the 1979-2013 reference period.


The estimated exposure to future extreme climate impact events (crop failure, drought, river flood, wildfire, tropical cyclone, and heatwave) is based on a published dataset by Lange et al. 2020 derived from ISIMIP2b data. The same global climate models and RCPs as described above were used. Within each 30-year period, the number of years with an extreme event and the average proportion of the site affected were calculated (see Kiribou et al. subm. for details).
The estimated exposure to future extreme climate impact events (crop failure, drought, river flood, wildfire, tropical cyclone, and heatwave) is based on a published dataset by Lange et al. 2020 derived from ISIMIP2b data. The same global climate models and RCPs as described above were used. Within each 30-year period, the number of years with an extreme event and the average proportion of the site affected were calculated (Kiribou et al. 2024).


'''Table 8. Estimated past and projected climatological characteristics in Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve'''
'''Table 8. Estimated past and projected climatological characteristics in Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve'''

Revision as of 08:18, 3 September 2026

Central Africa > Cameroon > Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

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Summary

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  • Central chimpanzees (Pan troglodytes troglodytes) & western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) are present in Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve.
  • It has been estimated that 11,345 individuals occur in the site.
  • The great ape population trend is decreasing.
  • The site has a total size of 1,566.72 km².
  • Key threats to great apes are logging, hunting, mining, and clearing forest for agriculture.
  • Conservation activities are not documented.


Site characteristics

The Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve is situated in southeastern Cameroon. Located between Nki National Park and Dja Biosphere Reserve, the site is also part of the TRIDOM conservation landscape (WWF). In 2014, the government of Cameroon, in collaboration with WWF and the World Bank, created the reserve. Along with the reserve, five new forestry concessions were created, covering nearly 500,000 ha in the same forest block (Ngoyla Mintom forest block), on the lands belonging to the indigenous Baka and Bantu peoples (FPP 2019). Mammal species inhabiting the site include forest elephants, gorillas, chimpanzees, mandrills, buffalos, bongos, sitatungas, panthers, duikers, water chevrotains; more than 280 bird species and 230 fish species are also found at the site (WWF).

Table 1. Basic site information for Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Species Pan troglodytes troglodytes, Gorilla gorilla gorilla
Area 1,566.72 km²
Coordinates Lat: 2.657628 , Lon: 13.788269
Type of site Protected area (Wildlife Reserve)
Habitat types Subtropical/tropical moist lowland forest, Subtropical/tropical swamp forest
Type of governance

Types of sites Governance types Habitat types

Ape status

Great ape abundance declined between 2011 and 2015 (N'Goran 2017).

Table 2. Ape population estimates reported for Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Species Year Occurrence Encounter or vistation rate (nests/km; ind/day) Density estimate [ind./ km²] (95% CI) Abundance estimate (95% CI) Survey area Sampling method Analytical framework Source Comments A.P.E.S. database ID
Pan troglodytes troglodytes & Gorilla gorilla gorilla 2015 11345.0 Ngoyla Mintom forests Line transects N'Goran 2017
Pan troglodytes troglodytes & Gorilla gorilla gorilla 2011 20076.0 Ngoyla Mintom forests Line transects N'Goran 2017

Sampling methods Analytical frameworks

Threats

Table 3. Threats to apes reported for Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Category Specific threats Threat level Description Year of threat
2 Agriculture & aquaculture 2.1 Annual & perennial non-timber crops Present (unknown severity) Expansion of slash and burn agriculture (WWF n.d.). Ongoing (2021)
3 Energy production & mining 3.2 Mining & quarrying Present (unknown severity) Industrial and artisanal mining (WWF n.d.). Ongoing (2021)
4 Transportation & service corridors 4.1 Roads & railroads Present (unknown severity) Logging roads facilitate access to the forest and illegal hunting and bushmeat trade (Mbom & Akana 2017). Ongoing (2017)
5 Biological resource use 5.1 Hunting & collecting terrestrial animals High (more than 70% of population affected) Bushmeat poaching (N'Goran 2017, WWF n.d.). Ongoing (2017)
5 Biological resource use 5.3 Logging & wood harvesting Present (unknown severity) Industrial timber exploitation and illegal small scale logging (WWF n.d.). Ongoing (2017)

Threats

Conservation activities

Table 4. Conservation activities reported for Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Category Specific activity Description Implementing organization(s) Year of activity
5 Protection & restoration 5.2 Legally protect ape habitat The reserve was established in 2014. 2014-Ongoing (2026)
7 Economic & other incentives 7.1 Provide monetary benefits to local communities for sustainably managing their forest and its wildlife (e.g., REDD, alternative income, employment) Promotion of Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) and REDD + initiatives (WWF n.d.). Unknown

Conservation activities

Challenges

Table 5. Challenges reported for Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Challenges Specific challenges Source Year(s)
Not reported

Challenges

Enablers

Table 6. Enablers reported for Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Enablers Specific enablers Source Year(s)
1 Site management
2 Resources and capacity
3 Engaged community
4 Institutional support
5 Ecological context
6 Safety and stability

Enablers

Research activities

Documented behaviours

Table 7. Behaviours documented for Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Category Behavior Observation type Prevalence Observation dates Source Habituation Species Comment
Not reported

Behaviours

Exposure to climate change impacts

As part of a study on the exposure of African great ape sites to climate change impacts, Kiribou et al. (2024) extracted climate data and data on projected extreme climate impact events for the site. Climatological characteristics were derived from observation-based climate data provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP, www.isimip.org). Parameters were calculated as the average across each 30-year period. For 1981-2010, the EWEMBI dataset from ISIMIP2a was used. For the two future periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2099) ISIMIP2b climate data based on four CMIP5 global climate models were used. For future projections, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were used. RCP 2.6 is a scenario with strong mitigation measures in which global temperatures would likely rise below 2C. RCP 6.0 is a scenario with medium emissions in which global temperatures would likely rise up to 3C by 2100. For the number of days with heavy precipitation events, the 98th percentile of all precipitation days (>1mm/d) was calculated for the 1979-2013 reference period as a threshold for a heavy precipitation event. Then, for each year, the number of days above that threshold was derived. The figures on temperature and precipitation anomaly show the deviation from the mean temperature and mean precipitation for the 1979-2013 reference period.

The estimated exposure to future extreme climate impact events (crop failure, drought, river flood, wildfire, tropical cyclone, and heatwave) is based on a published dataset by Lange et al. 2020 derived from ISIMIP2b data. The same global climate models and RCPs as described above were used. Within each 30-year period, the number of years with an extreme event and the average proportion of the site affected were calculated (Kiribou et al. 2024).

Table 8. Estimated past and projected climatological characteristics in Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Value 1981-2010 2021-2050, RCP 2.6 2021-2050, RCP 6.0 2071-2099, RCP 2.6 2071-2099, RCP 6.0
Mean temperature [C] 23.9 25.3 25.1 25.4 26.5
Annual precipitation [mm] 2176 2226 2218 2233 2235
Max no. consecutive dry days (per year) 19.1 14.9 16.9 13.1 15.2
No. days with heavy precipitation (per year) 7 7.3 7.5 7.2 8.5


Table 9. Projected exposure of apes to extreme climate impact events in Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

Type No. of years with event (2021-2050, RCP 2.6) % of site exposed (2021-2050, RCP 2.6) No. of years with event (2021-2050, RCP 6.0) % of site exposed (2021-2050, RCP 6.0) No. of years with event (2070-2099, RCP 2.6) % of site exposed (2070-2099, RCP 2.6) No. of years with event (2070-2099, RCP 6.0) % of site exposed (2070-2099, RCP 6.0)
Crop failure 7 0.01 5.5 0.01 8.5 0.01 20 0.01
Drought 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Heatwave 1.5 100 2.5 50 4 100 7.5 100
River flood 0 0 0.25 0.03 1 0.42 1 0.33
Tropical cyclone 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wildfire 29.75 0.37 30 0.43 28.75 0.39 29 0.45


  • Precipitation anomaly in Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve
  • Temperature anomaly in Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve

External links

References

FPP. (2019). There’s a long, long way to go: The story of FPIC in Cameroon’s Ngoyla Wildlife Reserve.

Mbom, S., & Akana, D. (2017). The road to destruction? https://infocongo.org/en/the-road-to-destruction/

N’Goran, K. P. (2017). Summary report on WWF biomonitoring activities from 2014 to 2016: Status of forest elephant and great apes in Central Africa priority sites.

WWF. (n.d.). Ngoyla-Mintom Project. https://www.wwf-congobasin.org/where_we_work/cameroon/ngoyla_mintom_/


Page created by: APES Atlas Team Date: 2021-11-14